NFL - Bears vs. Panthers Showdown Preview
Wow does it feel good to be back providing content to the amazing community that I tirelessly worked to serve over the last few years. I took some time off to focus on some personal things and am finally feeling ready to return. This time there is no money grab or attempt to “buy your services”. I just want to do this for me because at the end of the day I started this to provide free content that I think can help others. It is as simple as that. I think I got lost in trying to make Heating Up a business like some of the other big Daily Fantasy websites when I should have just done what brought me success from the beginning.
I need to revive the community and rebuild from the bottom up. The old Heating Up server had nearly 800 users and only 40-50 were ever active. I want to rebuild that with those that truly just want to have a place to go to talk sports and win some money through having each other’s backs and helping everyone out. This is more than just me… it is about US so come join us today!
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Showdown Theory is truly one of the last things that I think still has a massive edge in the Daily Fantasy community. Most main slates have pretty much become “whoever pays the most for their picks/optimizers/simulations” wins all the top prizes with only the top 1% reaping the rewards every week. While there might not be as many combinations for SD, there is still an edge to be had and I want to take advantage of that. For the NFL Showdown Slates, pricing on all of the players puts almost everyone into a certain “bucket” or tier where you essentially have to play the top scoring guy from each tier to have a chance. I think breaking each Showdown slate into those tiers and targeting the correct guys from each can result in some serious leverage.
You can gain leverage in Showdown a few different ways, but the main three are as follows
Play the ownership game: Find the lower owned pieces and play them.
Modified Roster Construction: Play the “chalk” but in ways the field might not be playing them.
Burn Salary: Don’t use all $50,000 of the salary allotted to you and waste a good amount to get different.
In Showdown the vast majority of the industry does pretty much the same thing. Watch videos from the sharps of the industry (Stokastic, Run Pure, ETR, ShipIt Nation, Pat Mayo, etc.) and form biases based on who they like. Usually the entire industry likes certain players so their ownership skyrockets. This forms pockets players with hyper inflated ownership (called Chalk) where others go under owned and become great leverage. Finding just one pivot from a chalky ownership player to an under owned player can be the difference in splitting the pot with 100+ and just 10-15 people in Showdown. That is what we want to capitalize on with these articles. Identify the chalk and find pivots in each pricing tier to help solidify leverage.
At the end of the day, the one thing you certainly will want to do is always construct your Showdown lineup in a way that fits some sort of narrative. Don’t play all the WRs and no QB. Don’t play 3-4 RBs and then both QBs. Neither of those things will ever correlate enough to make its way to the top and win a GPP. If you CPTN a QB, unless it is Lamar, Hurts or Fields, run it back with 1-2 receiving options because for a QB to be optimal they need to score likely 20+ DK points and for them to do that they have to throw to someone. There are tons of other scenarios, but make your lineup make sense!
Disclaimer: These articles are not intended to be picks. Please don’t take all my leverage plays and throw them in a lineup. That is almost a guaranteed to end in losing money. The field creates chalk for a reason. They are usually great plays and should be played, but not played all together unless you are playing cash games (50/50s and double ups) only. This is specifically written for tournaments, but can still be applied to cash games by focusing more on the chalk plays. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking submit on your lineups so please no hate if the analysis doesn’t end in winning you money every night.
With that being said, let’s take a look at my favorite Captain Picks, a breakdown of all relevant players that might get touches in this game and how we can leverage the chalk in ways to still have a optimal chance at coming in 1st place!
Captain Picks
I don’t buy into revenge narratives, but the Panthers secondary is decimated with injuries and DJ Moore ($15,900 CPTN) is probably licking his chops to prove to the Panthers why they should have kept him over trading him. There has to be some bad blood there and Moore is due for a big game even with Bagent starting. There are some drawbacks though. His target share has been coming down as of late with just 11 targets the last two games after 8+ in 4 straight from weeks 4-7. The Panthers statistically don’t allow a ton of pass yards either despite the injuries in the secondary but that is much due to them having a bottom 5 rush defense this year. Regardless of these cons, I am still going to follow the revenge narrative and get some DJ Moore CPTN lineups out there. Next up would have to be D’Onta Foreman who the Panthers also gave up on for Sanders + Hubbard who have been far from productive this season. He has been outstanding over the last few weeks, really picking up right where he left off in Carolina despite being a DNP-CD most weeks to start the season. Like I said above, the Panthers rush defense statistically is where they struggle, allowing over 130 rush yards/game and the most rush TDs in the league this season with 14 allowed. This is a prime spot for Foreman to just destroy them and prove they messed up letting him go. They could have gotten him for peanuts vs. paying Sanders top dollar to now be a backup. The last two weeks for him have been a struggle, but given they weren’t really in running scripts I am not shocked Foreman played poorly. This one should be a lot better for him as a result of being in a much better rushing script. Lastly, with Bears allowing so many pass yards I think Adam Thielen ($17,700 CPTN) can bounce back nicely. It was an absolute dud last week but Bryce did him zero favors. They couldn’t maintain possession long enough for Thielen to be productive, but all things considered the targets were there and he played the snaps. It really is up to Bryce to get him the ball efficiently and I doubt he performs that poorly again. For me, those are honestly the only 3 CPTNs I would target for this game. They logically are the only ones that make total sense to me so I will be riding with that core exclusively at the CPTN and others that I like at UTIL.
Bears
The Bears are 3 point favorites at home with a 20.75 point implied team total. It won’t be often this season the Bears are favorites. They do have a very easy matchup which should benefit them across the board including Tyson Bagent ($9,200) who struggled with turnovers last week but was great scrambling. I think the set up for him is solid, but they might just run the ball down their throats which is where Carolina is weakest statistically which takes a good bit away from his ceiling. I think he will have a good floor and in a low implied total game that might be all you need. He could be optimal with like 13 DK points for all we know, but in reality both defenses being pretty poor in certain aspects leads me to believe this actually is a competitive game. I actually think his rushing upside paired with the passing can make him a really solid play tonight. He has some competent weapons even if the depth isn’t there. DJ Moore ($10,600) and Cole Kmet ($6,600) seem to be his favorite targets so far. I am a buyer on the Moore revenge narrative, but if you aren’t he is in a fine matchup regardless. He should see a good bit of Donte Jackson who has been a black hole on defense. He is literally just speed he isn’t that good. No reason Moore can’t expose him or whatever CB is on him because they are without their CB1 and CB3. As for Kmet, he has been incredible with Bagent. 18 targets in the last two weeks with 17 and 23 DK points in those contests. The Panthers have been decent at stopping TE production this season, but that is more due to the fact that they haven’t played many competent TEs this year outside of LaPorta and Hockenson. With no Burns, Chinn or Shaq Thompson, I just don’t know who will cause him issues off the line or in coverage. You also have D’Onta Foreman ($8,600) who I think is in a prime spot to explode tonight. That would be the real narrative to follow in my opinion. Moore might not have any bad blood. They basically told Foreman they didn’t want him and let him walk. That is some disrespectful stuff. I love him here. After those three, it really is just Darnell Mooney ($7,400) and Tyler Scott ($200) who are seeing around 85% and 55% of the WR2 and WR3 snaps respectively. Mooney is always going to be a boom bust type of guy. He was able to get some good looks against NO but that might have been due to Marshon Lattimore locking up DJ Moore. I think with Moore in a better spot, Mooney will suffer. He should see around 5 high value targets regardless, so for GPPs I do have some interest. I just never get him right so if I play him he will flounder and if I don’t he will have a 70 yard TD. As for Scott at the bare minimum I do think is interesting. He will get 2-3 targets most likely and you legit only need him to get 1 and it lets you fit all of the studs in. He is also getting a few rush attempts from time to time. He feels like he should be more like $2,000 over $200. I really wouldn’t target anyone else in this offense straight up. Roschon Johnson ($3,600) is the only that has any appeal as more of a leverage play off of Foreman. He will spell Foreman from time to time and maybe get 4-6 touches. I think they tried to limit him last game due to returning from injury. A few more today and possibly more if the game blows out for whatever reason. I just don’t see a path and I know the rumbles in the locker room are probably asking Foreman if he wants the entire workload. I wouldn’t get cute and play any of Trent Taylor ($200), Velus Jones ($200), Khari Blasingame ($200), Darrynton Evans ($1,800), Robert Tonyan ($1,400) or Marcedes Lewis ($200). They just don’t get enough snaps to be viable and in low scoring games they barely ever show up.
Panthers
The Panthers are 3 point underdogs on the road with a 17.75 point implied team total. I don’t have much faith in this team to win a game ever. They are lucky they got the best of Houston at home. On the road they haven’t shown any promise. Bryce Young ($9,800) has not been good at all this year stats wise, but he hasn’t looked that bad other than a few really poor decisions that led to turnovers. The big positive is the Bears have allowed the 5th most pass yards/game this season so maybe he can be efficient. I think he might have the lowest PADOT in the league and the Bears don’t allow the highest DADOT which could be a good thing or bad thing. It likely means that he does the same things he has been with short passes and doesn’t try to stretch the field. That makes me think Adam Thielen ($11,800) will get peppered with plenty of highly efficient targets and they let him do all of the work. I really think this should be a gold matchup for him, but the one con is that he will likely see a lot Kyler Gordon out of the slot who has been the serviceable CB for them this year only allowing 0.22 FP/RR this year. The real CB to target is Tyrique Stevenson who has allowed the 2nd most FP/RR this season at 0.49 FP/RR. One of Jonathan Mingo ($2,800) or Terrace Marshall ($400) is going to draw that matchup. Mingo has been playing on literally all of the snaps this season, but hasn’t been able to translate it into anything. He gets a couple targets/game but eventually that has to change. With DJ Chark out, he might see a slight bump in targets. I think at this price he doesn’t need to do much so I like him here. Mingo and Thielen are the ones I have the most faith in, but Marshall might be the ultimate leverage play. He will get some ownership, but I doubt many go this low. He has shown some promise this season with a two week stretch averaging 9 targets/game Week 3/4. No Chark so we could see that happen again. I have no issue with it as a punt and doesn’t necessarily have to be paired with Bryce either. There is a chance that Ihmir Smith-Marsette ($200) gets a few snaps, but nothing of worth so don’t go there. The TE room is pretty much Hayden Hurst ($4,800) and Tommy Tremble ($2,400) from a snap share stand point. Hurst plays around 60% of the snaps and Tremble around 40%. The matchup is actually pretty solid for them. The Bears have given up the 8th most TE DK points this season. They just don’t command that much usage. Neither is seeing any valuable targets, but if I were to play one I would go to Hurst. It is just safer. The price is ugly though for what he has been producing. It is more of a leverage play. I like Tremble even less because he has 2 TDs in the last 4 weeks. I don’t like chasing TDs from backups ever. I think what will draw the most interest is their backups Stephen Sullivan and Ian Thomas are out so they will draw all of the snaps. Also, Sullivan last week got 6 targets. Bryce does like to look at the TEs. The RB room is where it gets very dicey. I don’t know if either of Miles Sanders ($5,200) or Chuba Hubbard ($8,000) are any good at this point. The offensive deficiencies don’t cater to them producing well. They need to feed more on their receiving upside and when they split snaps mostly it muddles things. Chuba is the defacto RB1 with 65% of the snaps and 75% of the touches so I would go to him first. However, the Bears have allowed the 4th fewest rush yards/game this season. At this price I would look elsewhere. They also added Montez Sweat to the defensive line which will just make their unit even stronger. I think the price is just a touch too high for me to like. I would look elsewhere. Same with Sanders who pretty much lost his job. There isn’t enough volume and the price is also high for the implied role. Raheem Blackshear ($1,000) maybe could be valuable in a blowout script with the pass catching upside, but I don’t like projecting for blowouts. It just doesn’t make much sense to go to him here.
DST and K
Given I actually think this game is a bit competitive, I don’t know if I will target a defense. If I had to choose one it would be the Bears DST ($4,600) because the Panthers’ offense is dreadful and as a unit the Bears are a lot better. The Panthers DST ($4,000) is just riddled with injuries and doesn’t perform at all on the road. They have allowed a whopping 36.5 points/game in away games which is at the bottom of the league. As for kickers, Eddy Pineiro ($4,400) scores fairly well regardless of how well the Panthers play. I think he is a fine play at this cheap of a price. As for Cairo Santos ($5,000), he is a touch higher in price which at times might be tough to get to. However, the Panthers defense is really bad so I think he can score well. In a low scoring game, kickers usually have a higher shot at being optimal. For me, since I think it is a bit higher scoring then Vegas expects, there might be some position players that can outpace them, but they should be fine nonetheless.
My Narratives
Revenge narrative night for DJ Moore and D’Onta Foreman
Only play 1 QB (preferably Bagent)
Play a kicker
Kmet > Mooney
Mingo > Marshall
Punts would be Mingo, Marshall and/or Scott
Bears 4/2 or 3/3 builds
Bears win a 29-24
